New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s decision to run for reelection as an independent is injecting fresh uncertainty into a race that has been shaping up into a likely comeback for former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D).
Adams announced his decision Thursday after much speculation that he would forgo the Democratic primary amid long odds of winning the nomination, citing the effect that the length of time the criminal case against him dragged on had on his chances. His decision will ensure his political relevancy at least through November.
But while his chances of pulling off a successful independent run seem slim, his decision could still have wide-ranging consequences for the other candidates in the race.
“What I think you have is an opportunity for a strong progressive candidate to emerge to counter, to actually be able to go up against [Cuomo’s] more moderate policies,” said Democratic strategist Basil Smikle, a former executive director of the state party.
Cuomo, the former governor of New York for more than a decade, has been the front-runner for the nomination since he launched his campaign at the start of last month and even before that. His potential return to electoral politics had been long anticipated and was expected to be a juggernaut in the race, particularly with the incumbent mayor under indictment and having almost rock-bottom favorability ratings.
Cuomo has held a steady lead in polling, with his initial support in the hypothetical ranked-choice voting system that the city uses in the 30s. The closest any other candidate has come has often been 20 points back or more.
But even as Adams struggled, he still had a relatively steady base of supporters who stood by him, allowing him to regularly place somewhere between second and fourth place in polling of the crowded field. Some polling suggested that was fueled by slightly higher support among Black voters and more moderate voters.
Analysts said Adams’s move now presents an opening for another candidate but were split on who may be the biggest beneficiary.
Pollster Bradley Honan, who leads the polling firm Honan Strategy Group, said the firm’s polling has shown Cuomo benefits the most when Adams is eliminated in the hypothetical ranked-choice match-up. In ranked-choice voting, the candidate with the fewest first-place votes is eliminated, and their votes are reallocated according to their supporters’ next choice, and the process continues until one candidate wins a majority.
“We already have data that shows what the impact of Adams not being in the race is, and that’s ranked-choice voting,” he said.
The most recent Honan poll showed almost all of Adams’s supporters switch to Cuomo in a hypothetical primary after the incumbent is eliminated.
Democrats said politically that would make sense as Cuomo and Adams generally both appeal to more moderate voters and most of the other candidates in the race are running as progressives.
Cuomo’s strategy has focused on his leadership abilities in a time of supposed chaos in the city, as well as supplanting Adams as the main moderate candidate in the race with the mayor bogged down in controversy.
But some said Adams’s departure from the primary could present an opportunity for another candidate who hasn’t yet been able to break through and seriously challenge Cuomo for the nomination.
State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani currently appears to have the best case to become that candidate as he has surged in the polls lately and has already reached the maximum fundraising limit allowed for the primary.
In the most recent polls, Mamdani has been the only candidate other than Adams often reaching double digits, and data shows he has been particularly energizing younger and more progressive voters. He has the backing of Democratic Socialists of America.
Smikle said Cuomo’s win isn’t inevitable and a lane could open for a progressive alternative to him. He said Cuomo will be the main target of attacks from his opponents as the leading candidate.
“On the one hand, that might spell some difficulty for [Cuomo], but it may open the door for Mamdani to start landing some shots in ways that he didn’t land before,” he said.
Danielle Deiseroth, the executive director of the progressive polling firm Data for Progress, said the mayor’s decision may be helpful to New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, particularly in the boroughs of Queens, which she represents, and Brooklyn, where the mayor had previously been borough president.
She said the other candidates have until now been “waging war on two fronts” attacking Cuomo and Eric Adams.
“This takes away one of the fronts that they can unite against a common enemy of Andrew Cuomo,” Deiseroth said.
Eric Adams, meanwhile, has repeatedly said he expects to win reelection despite the daunting task ahead of him.
Smikle said the mayor may have at least somewhat better of a chance making some inroads in the general electorate than with Democratic primary voters. He said the decision gives Adams some time to try to change the narrative and raise money.
If Adams were to be successful, a win by an independent as mayor of New York City would be rare but not unprecedented. Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg initially was a Republican when he was first elected, but he left the party and won reelection as an independent in 2009.
In his video announcing his decision, Adams referenced former Mayor John Lindsay, who was first elected in 1965 as a Republican before winning reelection on a third-party ticket with the Liberal Party against a Democratic and Republican opponent.
Smikle said Lindsay was a moderate Republican and a strong “retail politician” willing to reach out to communities of color at a time when many politicians, particularly other Republicans, ignored them. He also pointed to Bloomberg’s extensive financial resources allowing him to get his message out.
“While moving to an independent candidacy gives [Adams] time to rewrite his narrative, he still needs the resources to communicate that to larger numbers,” he said.
Although Adams has for months said he’s running, he has not shown much outward appearance of doing so, raising little money and not holding campaign events.
Early polling also shows Adams may not be too impactful in a three-way general election. One poll taken before Adams’s decision showed him with just 11 percent to Cuomo’s 43 percent and 13 percent for Republican Curtis Sliwa, who was the 2021 GOP nominee and is running again.
The Hill has reached out to a spokesperson for Adams’s campaign about his vision for his path to victory.
Honan said Adams’s decision may be about a larger goal than trying to win reelection, calling him “politically toast.”
“I see this ploy that he’s pursuing right now, it’s not an electoral play that he’s running as an independent,” he said. “It’s a ploy to stay relevant in [President] Trump’s world. Trump doesn’t like losers.”
Adams moved closer to Trump’s circle as the president was set to take office, meeting with him, attending his inauguration and refusing to criticize him as most other Democrats have.
“Were he to run in the Democratic primary, he would almost certainly lose, and then his currency goes way, way down. He becomes a lame duck,” Honan said. “And so, this is an opportunity for him to extend his relevance into November.”