A summit meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin announced a cease-fire in the Ukraine war suddenly looms on the near horizon. After their recent telephone call, it’s now only a matter of where (likely Moscow) and when (very soon).
There already appears to be a convenient overlap between the American and Russian positions on several key points, none of them to Ukraine’s liking.
First, the two superpowers agree on the urgent need for a cease-fire in place, meaning Russia will likely retain the 20 percent of Ukrainian territory it currently occupies. At this point, there is no U.S. pressure on Russia to give that territory up.
Second, the U.S. and Russia agree that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO or, likely, the European Union either, which is what Ukraine has been frantically struggling to achieve for a long time.
“Unrealistic,” snaps Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and that’s that.
It was Putin’s maniacal fear of Ukrainian membership in NATO that in part propelled his invasion of Ukraine three years ago in February 2022.
In this evolving scenario, Ukraine, which is offered no realistic alternative, will become a “neutral” nation, tilting toward a loose association with Russia, which is exactly what it has been desperately trying to avoid.
Trump shows little sympathy for Ukraine’s geographic nightmare, living side-by-side with an aggressive Russian neighbor. Besides, his cool attitude toward Ukraine fits comfortably into Putin’s overall strategy.
Here another convenient overlapping of interests opens the door to the superpower negotiation over the future of eastern and central Europe that Putin has long considered essential to Russian national interests, and that Trump would likely find totally satisfactory. He has yearned for a quick headline-catching meeting with the Russian leader, whom he considers a “friend.”
The U.S. has never been more eager than now to drastically reduce its multi-million dollar aid program to Ukraine, and to substitute a more transactional arrangement: Ukraine would pay for American aid, whatever it’s lucky enough to get, with its own precious mineral resources.
Putin, at the summit, envisages the rebirth of a World War II Yalta-type negotiation between him and Trump that would leave Russia in a strong strategic posture in eastern Europe capable of challenging NATO’s strength along Russia’s western border. Ukraine would be removed as a possible threat to Russian security, if it ever was, easing Putin’s oft-stated concerns.
Trump, in addition to helping end the Ukraine war, would also derive the satisfaction of resuming the lapsed East-West talks on limiting the spread of nuclear weapons, what he has called the “denuclearization” of the superpowers. It is unclear what exactly Trump has in mind, but this is an issue he discussed during his presidential campaign. Trump has also raised this issue with China’s Xi Jinping in an effort to widen the negotiating circle to include China.
In this negotiation between Russia and the U.S., Ukraine would play no role, not even that of an observer. Ukraine would be left out in the cold, despite countless assurances from the Biden administration and its West European allies that no negotiation about Ukraine’s future would ever take place without Ukraine’s presence.
Not only would Ukraine be left out in the cold, so too would America’s Western European allies. Trump would be riding into the summit as a lone cowboy, eager to advance his own interests as a man of peace, the possibility of a Nobel prize shimmering before him, indifferent apparently to his abandonment of once close allies and embattled Ukraine to finally end what he has labeled “this ridiculous war.”
Trump has spoken frequently about his sharp disapproval of the war, saying “Every day people are dying. Young, handsome soldiers are being killed. Young men, like my sons. On both sides. All over the battlefield. Enough.”
A summit between Trump and Putin leading to a cease-fire in place would have the immediate effect of ending the Ukraine war, which is now slipping miserably into its fourth year, after hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides. Many in the world would cheer this outcome.
But the end of the war would come with a heavy price. Ukraine would essentially be abandoned, left in a diplomatic ditch, pointing a tattered, bloody finger at the U.S. and screaming “betrayal.” America’s relations with Western Europe and NATO would be shattered, and America’s word as a reliable friend and ally would soon be seen as a sorry reminder of an earlier time in American history.
Trump has promised change, and it is now occurring all over the world.
Marvin Kalb, a Harvard professor emeritus and former network correspondent, is the author of “A Different Russia: Khrushchev and Kennedy on a Collision Course.”
