How to win Super Bowl squares, thanks to analytics

Ahead of every Super Bowl the past few years, the same conversation played out within my family, one that started with a seemingly simple question:

“What are the best Super Bowl squares?”

On the surface, a relatively innocuous question, and one that was always directed in my general direction, as the family’s resident sports blogger. And every year I would stammer through a somewhat generic, while relatively informed, response. I would talk about touchdowns, seven points, multiples of seven, and how field goals could factor into the equation.

However, as my children have grown older — and generally more skeptical of their father — I have found it harder and harder to convince them.

Yet this year, the conversation unfolded in a different manner, thanks to our friends at Establish the Run. They dove deep into the numbers for this year’s Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, and offered their analysis of the best combinations.

The answers may surprise you.

According to Establish the Run, the best combination is (drum roll please) … 0-0!

As noted, the chart looks at the expected value of each square, assuming a cost of $1 per square and even payouts of $25 at the end of each quarter. As put together by Michael Heery, the 0-0 combination has an expected value of $7.12, followed by 7-0/0-7 at $6.12. The combination of 3-0/0-3 comes in third, at $4.59.

Heery also looked a bit deeper, outlining the best combinations for the final square of the night. According to the data from Establish the Run, the 7-0/0-7 combination is your best option, as each has a 3.7% overall chance of hitting. The 7-4/4-7 combination comes in second, as each has a 3.4% chance of hitting:

You can read more of their analysis here. You can play Super Bowl squares at DraftKings Sportsbook.

As you can imagine, I was very excited to both show my children some newfound knowledge this year, and dominate the field with my entries. Sadly, this year’s squares, at least where I’m playing, have been randomized.

But maybe this information can help you.