NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 04: Former U.S. President Donald Trump sits in the courtroom with his … [+]
St Patrick’s Day, the 17th of March is usually the most important date in the Washington March calendar, though some might say that the 15th, the ‘Ides’ of March might be a better fit. From next year however, March 4th, the date set for Donald Trump’s arraignment in Georgia may become the focal point for March.
The worry is not so much that Trump is declared guilty, or innocent, but that in the Republican primaries that follow the court case and in the court of public opinion, a large number of Americans declare him to be their champion.
It is not impossible that Trump is sent to prison and wins the 2024 presidency from there (to my knowledge, the US constitution does not prohibit anyone who has been convicted, indicted or in jail, from running and becoming president, though constitutional lawyers and potentially Congress might try to use the 14th amendment to bar him from holding office’.
As always, the only winners will be the lawyers, and perhaps the media (Twitter, or X, will soon allow paid political ads).
My interest is what the reaction of the world beyond America could be to its potential descent towards a deep civil schism and, if opinion polls are to be believed, a presidential candidate who has vandalized all of the sacred, historical tents of American democracy. A victory for Trump is one thing, but an American public that detonates the foundations of the US is quite something else. We would lose America as we know it.
How will Europe react?
I could write reams on how bad this could all be, and others surely will. The relevant point is that with March 4th set as the date for the Trump trial, other countries, notably the autocracies, are already preparing for a difficult period for American democracy (as are many in Washington), and the possibility of a highly controversial year in American politics.
Some European leaders like Emmanuel Macron, who has plenty of experience with Trump, have already flagged the risks of the above scenario, but other European states like Ireland are so deeply tied to America (last weekend Notre Dame played the Navy in an American football game in Dublin) that the shock would be enormous.
European leaders have already contended with Trump and indeed, with a range of policy surprises from the Biden White House (IRA Act, AUKUS) but in general working relations between Washington and Paris/Brussels/Berlin are good now.
In general, Europe has risen (slowly) to meet the challenge of autocrats (European foreign, security, enlargement and industrial policy have changed dramatically in response to Russia), though it could be all the more decisive with Viktor Orban. ‘Losing America’ as we know it would be chilling, but some governments and policy experts in Europe are beginning to brainstorm this possibility and there is a long list of ‘to dos’.
Autocrats in trouble
Autocratic economies are faring much worse than democratic ones, a trend that highlights the first risk of a popular wave of support for Trump, that its consequences could lead to a loss of faith in US financial assets. Imagine if Trump declared that the US had no obligations to the overseas holders of its debt, and or ordered the Navy to occupy Greenland.
The euro and European government debt might likely become more of a safe haven asset, some wealthy Americans might move to Europe and the UK, and the difficulty of running economic and foreign policy in the US may well mean a period of heightened uncertainty is ahead.
Geopolitically, Europe may want to pre-empt some of the risks associated with this scenario by eradicating as best as it can Russian influence within European countries like Germany and Austria, and in my view should take a much more severe stance on Hungary’s government. Poland, which holds elections in October will be a vital cog in this setup, as will the Baltic states. A more aggressive stance would be to surge military support for Ukraine, across different domains (cyber, financial, hard weapons).
Operationally, Europe also needs to accelerate and deepen the implementation of its Economic Security Act and to bolster it with much greater, and more ruthless resourcing of banking and payments oversight. The coming US election will make the risk focused EU AI Act look sensible, especially as the use of AI in social media and politics is concerned (though the Act won’t be in force by then).
In this respect, even the threat of another Trump presidency could be the forcing element that defines the multipolar era, when Europe finally realizes that it must rely on its own resources – as it is increasingly doing. There would likely be little change in Europe’s relationship with China, which is based on ‘de-risking’ rather than ‘de-coupling’.
If this scenario comes to pass, we will badly miss America as we know it, but there is no excuse for this outcome being a surprise.
