Washington Nationals’ Lane Thomas in action during a baseball game against the Miami Marlins, … [+]
Offensive players fall into fairly easily identifiable tiers. First, there are the obvious superstars, the guys regularly in the hunt for MVP awards. Guys like Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. There are a handful more, but you get the point.
Then there is the next tier – the well above average regular. They play in All Star Games – not every year, mind you – but generally in more than one, and not just because their team needs a representative. The really good teams tend to have more than their share of these guys, like the Braves’ Austin Riley and Dodgers’ Will Smith.
Then there is the average regular. They might make an All Star team in their best season, but generally aren’t eye-catching and tend to simply make the trains run on time. Like the Cubs’ Nico Hoerner and the Reds’ Jonathan India.
Sometimes, during a player’s early seasons, they grow out of the average regular and into the above average regular group. For whatever reason – the players’ physical ship comes in, or he eliminates weaker or sharpens stronger areas of his game.
Last season, then Diamondbacks’ outfielder Daulton Varsho appeared to graduate from the average to the well above average group. He mashed 27 homers and stole 16 bases while batting .235-.302-.443 while also playing some catcher. Most onlookers were quite surprised when the Blue Jays landed him in a trade and proclaimed them one of the big winners of the offseason as a result. There was just one problem – his batted ball fundamentals didn’t support such offensive improvement, and here we are, with Varsho batting .224-.289-.380 through Sunday’s games, without the physical burden of playing behind the plate at all.
Varsho outperformed his fundamentals on all batted ball types last season – on fly balls (138 Unadjusted vs. 121 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), line drives (104 vs. 90) and ground balls (84 vs. 77). On all batted balls, his Unadjusted Contact Score of 112 far outstripped his adjusted 97 mark. Add back the Ks and BBs, and Varsho “should have” hit .222-.284-.396, for an 89 “Tru” Production+ that was well shy of his 109 wRC+. His 2023 wRC+ and “Tru” Production+ are dead even at 84, very close to that 2022 “Tru” Production+ level.
So I searched through all 2023 MLB regulars to look for this year’s Varsho.
Corner outfielder? Check.
Young, upwardly mobile player? (Varsho was 25 in 2022.) Check.
Decent and sharply increasing power production? Check.
Reasonably prolific basestealer? Check.
And batted ball fundamentals that don’t support such an offensive surge and are likely indicative of a return to normalcy moving forward? Check.
I went through this exact process comparing 2023 Bryson Stott to 2022 Andres Gimenez yesterday. Today, the 2023 campaign being turned in Nationals’ RF Lane Thomas matches up quite closely to Varsho’s 2022. Thomas is 27 and in his second season as a regular, as Varsho was last season. He’s added over 40 points of AVG and 80 points of SLG from last season, already easily exceeding his career high in homers with 23 and more than doubling his career high in stolen bases with 17. He’s batting .285-.334-.484 through Sunday’s games, and is generally viewed by Nationals’ fans as a blossoming star. In my opinion, they’re overshooting the mark.
There’s plenty to like about Lane Thomas. He’s healthy and answers the bell every day, playing sound corner outfield defense and capable of filling in center field for stretches of time. While he’s not a burner, he’s reasonably athletic, runs the bases well and has at least enough pop to be respected by opposing pitchers.
He has plenty of drawbacks, however. He’s a dead pull hitter, and though the days of dramatic overshifts are gone, he’s easily defended in the infield. His K/BB profile is poor – his K rate is high and trending up, his BB rate low and trending down.
But most importantly, he simply doesn’t hit the ball that hard. He certainly lacks the batted ball profile you might expect of a guy with 23 homers in early September. In fact, his batted ball authority is almost exactly league average across all batted ball types, with 104, 98 and 100 Adjusted Fly Ball, Line Drive and Grounder Contact Scores this season. Overall, his Adjusted Contact Score is an exactly league average 100. Thomas “should be” batting .237-.281-.396 this season, for an 82 “Tru” Production+, way short of his 125 wRC+ and almost a dead ringer for Varsho’s actual 2023 production level.
Thomas has made some positive strides from 2022 to 2023. He’s hitting the ball a little harder across all batted ball types, and has sharply pared his pop up rate. However, his K/BB profile has regressed, limiting the increase in his “Tru” Production+ from 79 in 2022 to 82 in 2023.
He simply is not a present or future star, however. An average ball-striker with a poor K/BB profile almost can’t be. The Nats would have no problem penciling him in as an average regular moving forward, getting solid value from him through his arbitration years. But it might be even more advantageous for them to do exactly what the Diamondbacks did with Varsho (he was dealt for franchise anchor C Gabriel Moreno and average regular LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) – cash in on his deceptively big season, and trade him for excellent return while his perceived value is high.
