NBA Playoffs teams ranked by their 2025 championship chances

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are here with three big favorites and a pool of contenders ready to play the spoiler. The Boston Celtics are trying to become the league’s first back-to-back champion since the 2017-2018 Golden State Warriors. Boston ran over the league on their way to a championship last year, but the path won’t be so easy this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers earned the No. 1 seed in the East with a shocking 64-win season powered by their ‘core four’ of Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen. The Oklahoma City Thunder were even better as the leaders of the West, with a 68-win regular season that saw the team post the second-best net-rating in league history behind Michael Jordan’s 1996 Chicago Bulls.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors both dream of getting in the championship mix out West. Can an Eastern Conference team pull off an upset to make the conference finals? Here’s how we’d rank every team in the 2025 NBA Playoffs by their championship chances.

Note: this was published before the No. 8 seeds were determined in each conference.

14. Orlando Magic

The Magic have an incredible foundation with Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and an elite defense that ranked No. 2 in the NBA this season. They just aren’t a serious team yet because this might be the worst three-point shooting team in league history relative to era. The Magic’s 31.8 percent mark from three-point range was dead-last in the league by a mile, and is especially repugnant for a team with two elite playmaking forwards. Orlando also did a poor job of optimizing Banchero’s touches, making an obviously talented player one of the least efficient high-volume scorers in the league. The Magic still have a lot of potential for the future, but they could really use a trade or two and some smart free agent signings this summer.

13. Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons are the feel-good story of the season after emerging from an endless rebuild to match their highest win total (44 wins) since their 2008 heyday. The Pistons loaded up on shooters during the offseason, and it allowed Cade Cunningham finally start playing like a No. 1 overall pick. Cunningham’s sensational blend of scoring and playmaking will likely earn him an All-NBA nod, but it was possible because Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. spaced the floor for him. New head coach JB Bickerstaff deserves a ton of credit all around, but especially for helping the defense jump from No. 26 to No. 11 with fewer roster improvements in terms of defensive personnel. Tobias Harris deserves some credit too for being the steadying veteran he was signed to be. The Pistons made the sixth-biggest win total improvement in league history this year, and they have a decent shot against the New York Knicks in the first round. Regardless of their playoff performance, this season has already been a huge success.

12. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have been cursed by terrible injury luck in the playoffs ever since winning the 2021 NBA championship, and it’s happened again with Damian Lillard’s blood clot. Lillard has been out for a month after doctors discovered a blood clot in his calf, and while there’s some optimism he could return for the playoffs, no one knows for sure. Milwaukee will have a chance either way because they can claim to having the best player in the Eastern Conference. Giannis Antetokounmpo had another monster season of 30+ points, 12 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game with great defense. Now 30 years old, Antetokounmpo has missed some or all of Milwaukee’s last two playoff runs, and needs to put the team on his back to get past the Pacers in the first round. The rest of the Bucks are a little shaky without Lillard: Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr., and AJ Green need to splash threes, Kyle Kuzma needs to avoid self-sabotage, and Brook Lopez must continue to hold up brilliantly at both ends of the floor. The chips are stacked against the Bucks again enter the playoffs, but with Giannis, anything is possible.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves matched their best playoff run ever last year with a Western Conference Finals appearance, but things were always going to be a little weird this year after they traded Karl-Anthony Towns a day before training camp. Minnesota spent most of this season in play-in range, but their killer run after the All-Star break elevated them into the No. 6 seed. The Wolves have dropped from No. 1 to No. 6 in defense this year, but it’s still a team that is a major pain to play against with Rudy Gobert protecting the rim and Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker at the point of attack. Edwards has revamped to shot-diet to lead the NBA both three-point attempts and three-point makes, but he remains at his most dangerous driving downhill. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo — the returning pieces from the KAT trade — took a little bit to find their stride, but have each been playing better as of late. Minnesota is bigger and a little more athletic than the Lakers in their first round matchup, but LA is considered a decisive favorite. It’s on Edwards to put on his Superman cape and drag this team to another playoff run. It hasn’t always looked pretty for the Wolves this season, but it’s coming together late.

10. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers made a surprise run to the conference finals a year ago after acquiring Pascal Siakam at mid-season. This year, the full effect of the Siakam trade came into focus, as Indiana showed a lot better balance from their all-offense/no-defense approach previously. The Pacers still finished No. 9 in offense this year with Siakam putting together a strong overall scoring season, and Tyrese Haliburton catching fire late. The defense finished in the top half of the league too, with Myles Turner still effective as a rim protector while Siakam and Aaron Nesmith could battle bigger scorers. The most encouraging sign for Indiana is that Haliburton appears to be back to the best version of himself lately. He’s not likely to be the best player in a series with the Bucks, but Haliburton’s high-octane playmaking and pull-up shooting is what makes the Pacers a pest to deal with. If he’s on, another Cinderella run isn’t impossible.

9. New York Knicks

The Knicks altered the fabric of their roster by swinging a blockbuster trade for Karl-Anthony Towns a day before training camp opened. Towns’ first year has been everything the Knicks could have reasonably expected: fantastic offensive production anchored by elite outside shooting, with extremely shaky interior defense. New York is betting that Jalen Brunson’s two-man game with KAT can carry the offense (the Knicks finished No. 5 in offensive efficiency) while OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart lock down on defense. It sounds good in theory, but there are a couple issues: the Knicks’ starters each ranked in the top-25 of minutes per game this season, with Bridges playing more minutes than anyone since 2016 James Harden. The depth of this roster just isn’t good, and it shows up offensively when Brunson goes to the bench. It’s also just hard to build a great defense with a shaky rim protector like Towns, and another minus defender in Brunson in every lineup. This has been a successful first year for the Knicks’ all-in era, but this team needs a few more tweaks before it’s truly a championship contender.

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers time as a contender seemed destined to end when they lost Paul George in free agency for nothing coming off an All-NBA season over the summer. It turns out it was the best thing that could ever happen to them. As George embarked on a lost year in Philadelphia, the Clippers rebuilt their team around the James Harden-Ivica Zubac pick-and-roll and spent their available cap space on defenders. Kawhi Leonard has been recovering slowly but surely along the way, and it starting to look like the closer this team needs over the last few weeks. Leonard hasn’t finished a playoff run healthy since 2020 inside the bubble. Betting on Harden in the playoffs is a similarly doomed proposition historically-speaking. With Norm Powell having a career year and enough defensive length around the scorers, there’s a pathway to talking yourselves into the Clippers making a deep run. The hypotheticals are just slightly too big for my liking.

7. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are becoming one of the best examples of how to pull off a modern NBA rebuild, going from the dregs of the post-James Harden era to the No. 2 seed in the West in just two years. Head coach Ime Udoka deserves much of the credit for turning Houston into a tough, physical team that finished as the league’s runaway leader in offensive rebound rate as well as No. 5 in defensive efficiency. The Rockets don’t have a star creator in the halfcourt which can lead to some ugly offensive possessions. Can you really win with defense and offensive rebounding in the playoffs? The spotlight will be on 22-year-old Turkish center Alperen Sengun to show the full extent of his All-Star leap this season. Sengun’s interior scoring and playmaking is the Rockets’ best bet when the game settles down, but Houston’s lack of shooting means he’ll be seeing extra limbs on every touch. Amen Thompson also has the chance for a coming out party after a breakout sophomore season. Thompson is the best pure athlete in the NBA, and he’ll be tasked with guarding Stephen Curry while contributing on offense. The Rockets are young and don’t have a true star, but their overwhelming intensity and athleticism could still play well in the postseason.

6. Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic refused to let the Nuggets crumble this year. The 30-year-old center minted his status as the best player in the world with a season for the ages, finishing top-3 in the NBA in scoring, assists, rebounds, and steals while shooting nearly 42 percent from three-point range. Jokic did everything for Denver, but the fact that he had to shoulder so much responsibility only two years after winning a championship is troubling. Firing head coach Mike Malone and GM Calvin Booth days before the playoffs shows how toxic the situation in Denver has been. Jokic dragged his team to 50 wins, but he’ll need help if the Nuggets want to go on another long playoff run. Jamal Murray is the biggest X-Factor in the playoffs. The 28-year-old broke down in last year’s playoffs, but has been playing better lately after a slow start to this year. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. also need signature playoff runs, while youngsters like Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, and Jalen Pickett get a big opportunity to prove themselves. The Russell Westbrook factor is also lurking here. He’s had a solid season, but it feels like disaster is always waiting around the corner. The Nuggets have the best player in any series, and that’s an enormous advantage. If Jokic can lead this team on another deep run, it will be one of the greatest accomplishments of his career.

Los Angeles Clippers v Golden State Warriors

5. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors looked poised to run out the clock on the Stephen Curry era until a miraculous trade deadline deal fell into their lap. Golden State has been reborn with Jimmy Butler in tow, giving them another ferocious defender as well as someone who can put pressure on the rim and free throw line. Butler’s presence has allowed Stephen Curry more freedom to work his magic off the ball, and even at age-37 he’s still capable of taking over a playoff series. The Warriors still have plenty of questions: How should the center rotation play out? Does Jonathan Kuminga have any role on this team? Can Butler again rise to the occasion as a scorer in the playoffs? All Curry could ask for is a chance, and it feels like he has it this year. The Rockets can overwhelm Golden State with athleticism and youth, but one side has No. 30 and the other doesn’t. Rockets fans know that as well as anyone over the years. It’s easy to write off the Warriors as too small or too old, but this team just works with Butler if he continues to reach peak form the playoffs. The Warriors are far from a favorite this time around, but there’s real hope for another playoff run, and sometimes that’s all you need when you have Stephen Curry.

4. Los Angeles Lakers

The 2024-25 NBA season will always be remembered as the year the Lakers lucked into trading for Luka Doncic. The deal has paid immediate dividends despite it leaving the Lakers without a starting-caliber big man, and with Doncic recovering from the longest injury of his career. Doncic is a proven playoff killer, and LeBron James is an incredible co-star even at 40 years old. Austin Reaves gives the Lakers a bonafide third scorer who can takeover any game. The Lakers lack a star center, but they’re not exactly small, with strong-and-long players at almost every other position. Head coach JJ Redick has shown an impressive ability to adjust to matchups in his first season, and he’ll have to figure out a way to minimize the roster shortcomings. The Lakers also got an encouraging draw, avoiding the Thunder until a potential Western Conference Finals series. Even with their flaws, LA has shown enough offensive firepower and defensive ingenuity for a real run. Mavericks fans will suffer every step of the way.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

It was reasonable to expect the Cavs to take another step forward with new head coach Kenny Atkinson this year after injuries like Darius Garland’s broken jaw handcuffed the roster last year. No one thought Cleveland would leap to 64 wins and legitimate championship contention status, though. The Cavs were a wagon all year, with two 6-foot All-Stars guards leading the offense and a pair of 7-footers anchoring the defense. The Cavs had the No. 1 offense in the league, with a terrifying blend of three-point shooting and ball movement routing opponents all year. Donovan Mitchell deserves credit for taking a small step back in responsibility as Garland roared back to All-Star form. Evan Mobley’s All-NBA jump was one of the season’s biggest developments, and Jarrett Allen was as steady as ever shooting 70 percent at the rim and providing solid defense inside. The Cavs’ depth was a huge asset all year too, and players like Ty Jerome and Max Strus will need to stay hot in the playoffs. Having two small guards is always a potential postseason pitfall, but Cleveland is betting they can get teams into the blender before the mismatch hunting takes hold. The Cavs are already an amazing story. They have a real chance to write a perfect ending as the playoffs begin.

2. Boston Celtics

The Celtics dominated the playoffs last year on the way to one of the most convincing championship runs in recent memory, but there’s no denying that they faced an easy path to get there. Boston has looked like a front-runner to go back-to-back from the very start of the season, and it finished the year No. 2 in offense and No. 4 in defense. Jayson Tatum is poised for his fourth straight First-Team All-NBA selection, and remains the steadying two-way force every great team needs. Jaylen Brown’s bulky knee presents a potential problem for Boston, but don’t forget this team coasted to a championship without Kristaps Porzingis for much of the playoffs last year. If Porzingis can stay healthy and productive, and if Al Horford can fend off age-related decline for a few more months, the Celtics have enough firepower to go back-to-back even if Brown isn’t in top shape. The Celtics still take and more more threes than anyone, and there’s no way to defend them in so much space when the shots are falling. With zero weak links to attack defensively, pristine spacing, and a brilliant head coach, Boston has the ingredients to be the NBA’s first repeat champion in seven years.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

It’s hard to believe how dominant the Thunder were this season when you consider that Chet Holmgren, who seemed destined for an All-NBA nod this year, only played 32 games because of a pelvic injury. Well, OKC still went 42-8 without their second-best player, showing off the embarrassment of riches that is the envy of the NBA. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the likely MVP, and he’s fully claimed the title of the best guard in basketball. The Thunder won SGA’s minutes by an absurd +918 points this season, with the guard’s unstoppable combination of rim attacking, mid-range pull-ups, and foul drawing pacing their ascendancy. With Holmgren now back, Oklahoma City has been experimenting with two big lineups alongside Isaiah Hartenstein. The pairing has solved the team’s rebounding issues from last year, but opens up some new problems with less speed and less shooting on the floor. To this point, the Thunder have been winning with defense, forcing turnovers at a historic rate that have led to so many easy buckets the other way. Can OKC keep turning teams over when the game slows down in the playoffs? Is Jalen Williams ready to take a playoff leap as a secondary halfcourt creator if they can’t? There’s reason to be skeptical of the Thunder until they fully breakthrough, but this team is set up for championships now and well into the future. This could be the start of something special for OKC.

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