The Lions and Commanders are among most elite and aggressive on fourth downs

The NFC Divisional Round gets under way with the top-seeded Detroit Lions taking on the Washington Commanders, who have finally reached this stage of the playoffs for the first time in nearly 20 years.

Despite the wide point spread in Detroit’s favor, this game has the highest over/under total of the weekend and for good reason. Detroit’s defense is getting healthier yet is still significantly undermanned, Washington’s defense is improving but still not very good, and both offenses are among the NFL’s highest scorers.

One of the most fascinating subplots is the inevitable fourth-down decision-making from both teams. While Detroit’s identity under Dan Campbell is etched in stone, Washington’s is only just forming under a new coach and rookie sensation quarterback.

Dan Campbell isn’t the only Dan who loves to go for it on 4th down

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It’s been firmly established that Dan Campbell (or ‘Dan Gamble’ as he’s also known) will frequently go for it on fourth downs. Since becoming Lions head coach in 2021, he’s statistically gone for more fourth downs than anyone in the NFL. If there was any inkling that Campbell would stray from his philosophy after the high-profile failures in the NFC Championship loss to the 49ers, the Lions responded by ranking fourth in total fourth-down attempts. Campbell will even go for it when he doesn’t have to just to ensure his game-winning field goal is with 0:00 on the clock instead of 0:40.

But the other Dan on the opposite sideline is not too far behind.

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In last Sunday’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Commanders coach Dan Quinn went for it on fourth down five times, all within Zane Gonzalez’s field goal range. Both touchdown drives were off of fourth down successes, eschewing the traditional “take the three points” thinking and pushing for seven.

Quinn’s history with fourth downs is intriguing. Back in 2015 in his first season as Atlanta Falcons head coach, he was heavily criticized for a horrific decision to kick a field goal from the 1-yard line while trailing 17-13 late in the fourth quarter to the San Francisco 49ers. The Falcons never got the ball back.

The following year, Quinn went for it on fourth and 1 inside his own territory in overtime versus the San Diego Chargers. Atlanta turned it over on downs and lost the game. It was statistically a defensible call, one which Quinn said was, “Just a gut feeling that I went with. It didn’t work.”

While Quinn’s fourth-down decisions were not particularly consistent in Atlanta, he was very aggressive throughout the Falcons’ eventual Super Bowl runner-up season, which was perhaps not coincidentally his most high-powered offense. After the Commanders win over the Buccaneers, Quinn told reporters that his fourth-down strategy is to be “bold, but not reckless.”

The Lions and Commanders have excellent 4th-down offenses

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Detroit made 66.7% of their fourth-down attempts, good for seventh in the NFL and the highest percentage of the Campbell era. The Lions also tied with the Atlanta Falcons with a league-leading six touchdowns on fourth down. The Commanders were a staggering 87% on 20 of 23 attempts, marking the greatest single-season fourth-down offense since Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts went 9-of-10 in 2000.

In the regular season, Jared Goff led the NFL with five fourth-down touchdown passes, while Jayden Daniels had the third-most rushing first downs (8) and nearly double the fourth-down rushing yards (85) as second-placed Josh Allen (46).

Having a great offense doesn’t necessarily mean strong fourth-down statistics. The Baltimore Ravens are surprisingly 20th in conversion rate, although their 15 attempts also ranks near the bottom of the league.

NFL broadcasts will often describe “go” decisions on fourth down as gambles. Is it really much of a gamble to repeatedly go for it on fourth down when the odds are heavily in your favor that you’ll convert?

Not coincidentally, the Lions rank last in punt rate and the Commanders are tied for third-to-last.

But the Lions have an elite 4th-down defense

It’s been scarcely discussed, but Detroit’s fourth-down defense has been as excellent as its offense. The Lions rank second in conversion rate allowed at 41.4%, a massive improvement from their lackluster 57.7% last season. With the No. 1 seed at stake against the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit stymied Sam Darnold to 0-of-3 on fourth down, including two stops in the red zone.

In contrast, Washington has allowed 16 of 24 conversions, among the NFL’s worst. It’s already a Herculean task to limit the Lions offense on earlier downs, but Quinn’s defense will be really tested if/when it’s fourth and short and Campbell elects to keep the offense on the field.

There’s nothing to suggest either Campbell or Quinn will deviate from the philosophies that have helped get them a combined 28 wins this season. Someone is going to lose but don’t expect any regrets if there are failed fourth downs that factor into the outcome of the game. It should make for incredible entertainment from start to finish, and even if you don’t agree with their fourth down philosophies, why wouldn’t you want to see these two electrifying offenses on the field as much as possible?