Which teams are on upset watch in the NFL Divisional Round playoffs?

Saturday football will be played this week for the last time for quite some time. Ts and Ps to a practice we all know and love that we will have to wait until August to partake in again.

Such is the case here because we have reached the Divisional Round weekend in the NFL. There are four games left with eight teams standing and each one of them is anxious to reach the penultimate stage with a ticket to the Super Bowl on the line.

It is often said that this is the best weekend in sports. I’d certainly put the weekend of The Masters above it myself, others offer the opening rounds of March Madness, but given that these games are generally pretty thrilling I can understand the take.

Entering the Wild Card Round I offered two potential upset picks and got half of them right (it sounds better to word it that way). Given that there are only four games going on this weekend I figured it would be best to rank them by upset potential.

We will start with games that carry the most potential to be an upset and work down from there. Also… we are using betting lines from our friends at FanDuel as of Wednesday, January 15th given that they are subject to change.

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens (BUF +1.5)

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Let me be very clear in saying that I think the Baltimore Ravens are going to win the Super Bowl. I stated as much during this week’s edition of The Skinny Post (a weekly column that myself and Michael Peterson write). But they clearly have the toughest opponent of all four favorites on the weekend.

On some level that’s what this exercise is about. We are looking at the teams we think will lose and then ranking them. Of the four squads I think who will have their seasons end this weekend… Buffalo is clearly the best. I don’t believe Josh Allen is MVP, but I certainly think he has a case. They are at home. They are underdogs! That is a lot of sports energy working in their favor.

Unfortunately for the Bills this Ravens team has not looked mortal for some time. Could that hour come on Sunday night? Maybe. I doubt it, though.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (LAR +6.5)

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This is admittedly a very, very primitive way of looking at things given how much data and information is available to us nowadays. But I am here to do it nonetheless.

Excluding a Week 18 game against the Seattle Seahawks when they weren’t exactly in it to win it because of things not being on the line for them…. the Los Angeles Rams have not allowed an opponent to score double digits in four straight games. This obviously includes Monday night’s playoff win over the Minnesota Vikings that took place in Arizona as a result of the tragic California fires.

Expanding a bit more outward… the Rams have won six games in a row save for that meaningless game against Seattle. Amazingly, the last time they lost a game of consequence for them was at home against the Philadelphia Eagles.

I think that we all feel both teams are different versions of themselves than they were on the Sunday before Thanksgiving (when that game was!). LA has a shot here.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (HOU +8.5)

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A part of me really wants to pick Houston to win (as I did in our upsets column last week), but I am not going to be the person who picks against the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs in general, let alone in a year in which they continue to find all sorts of ways to win.

The Texans remembered how to football last week which was certainly a positive sign, but I would be careful at making a mountain out of what might be a molehill given that the Chargers were the kingmakers involved here. I’m certainly not trying to minimize Houston’s playoff win, but it came against a team that a lot of us (me at least) didn’t necessarily believe in. Why would we then freak out and overreact and act like they are amazing now?

The line certainly reflects that logic… as well as the fact that Kansas City is just sort of inevitable. Still though, the Chiefs have looked more vulnerable than ever this season which means I will give the moment some brief pause, relatively speaking.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (WAS +9.5)

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It’s easy to say in hindsight, but I feel dumb for not seeing the Commanders as an obvious upset pick last week. That’s on me, fam.

There is no question that Washington is in the middle of something very fun and cool right now. That can be true at the same time that it is true that the Lions are just a different kind of monster. Washington benefitted from some wild things near the end against Tampa Bay and capitalized on them to their credit. This Detroit team is not a unit that makes those kind of mistakes.

Ultimately I would be absolutely shocked if the Commanders won this week which is why they are carry the smallest potential to be an upset this week in my mind.

Now that I have said that out loud though… watch out.